Comparing Possibly Misspecified Forecasts

Abstract

Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating estimates of a statistical functional (such as a conditional mean, quantile, or distribution) using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there is an infinite number. If forecasters all use correctly specified models free from estimation error, and if the information sets of competing forecasters are nested, then the ranking induced by a single consistent loss function is sufficient for the ranking by any consistent loss function. This article shows, via analytical results and realistic simulation-based analyses, that the presence of misspecified models, parameter estimation error, or nonnested information sets, leads generally to sensitivity to the choice of (consistent) loss function. Thus, rather than merely specifying the target functional, which narrows the set of relevant loss functions only to the class of loss functions consistent for that functional, forecast consumers or survey designers should specify the single specific loss function that will be used to evaluate forecasts. An application to survey forecasts of U.S. inflation illustrates the results.     

Australian and New Zealand Indigenous mothers’ report respect for smoking bans in homes

BackgroundThere is limited data about the reasons behind residential rules to reduce environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure or the establishment or enforcement of such rules in Indigenous populations.AimWe aimed to gain an understanding of smokefree rules around Australian and New Zealand (NZ) Indigenous infants.MethodThis was a qualitative study nested within a randomised controlled trial that aimed to test the efficacy of a family-centred tobacco control programme about environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) to improve the respiratory health of Indigenous infants in Australia and New Zealand. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 Indigenous mothers of infants in Australia (n = 7) and NZ (n = 19). We asked about the presence of smokefree rules, who set the rules, how the rules were set and enforced, and presence of smokefree rules in participants’ wider social circle. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, and inductively analysed to identify key themes.FindingsSixty-nine percent of mothers had partners, 77% smoked and all reported some presence of smokefree rules for house and car. Three main themes were identified: strategies to minimise exposure to ETS, establishing smokefree rules in homes and cars, and, adherence and enforcement of smokefree rules. Several strategies were identified to limit children's exposure to ETS, including rules to limit exposure to third-hand smoke. Mothers extended their smokefree rules to apply to other people's houses or cars, and reported that their family and social circles also had smokefree rules. The main reason for having smokefree rules was for the health of their children. Rules were most commonly set by the mother, often jointly with their partner. Few mothers reported challenges or problems with other people adhering to the smokefree rules.ConclusionWomen tried very hard to, and believed that they were effective in, protecting their children from the harmful effects of ETS exposure. In this context, health professionals need to emphasise smoking cessation in parents, so that children are maximally protected from ETS exposure.     

数据生产要素的结合机制——互补性资产视角

数据作为生产要素创造的价值备受关注,但目前对数据与其他生产要素的结合机制缺乏明确的解释。本文从互补性资产理论出发,分别探讨数据与技术、资本、劳动生产要素的结合机制。研究表明:在与技术要素的结合上,数据要素的加入能够帮助创新企业更有效地使用互补性资产,从而产生技术创新;在与资本要素的结合上,数据要素的加入降低了企业获取作为生产资源和营销资源的互补性资产的成本,从而产生成本创新;在与劳动要素的结合上,数据要素能够从产品设计和生产方面提升互补性资产的生成效率,从而产生流程创新。最终,数据要素在与核心生产要素的有机结合下,极大促进了数字经济的创新与发展。     

布坎南契约规则理论的困境及其分析

布坎南采用公共选择理论研究契约规则问题,在政府的民意基础和政府的可行性之间建立起对应的函数关系,从而既扩大了经济学的应用范围,又增强了政治学的解释力。但是,布坎南的民主理论并不完善,以成本作为标准的思路使得这一理论在解释立宪实践中常见的超多数规则现象时遇到了困难。从建立新的政府决策模式的构想出发,以净收益标准替代布坎南理论的成本标准,可以弥补布坎南理论在解释现实上的缺陷。     

法治层次论与法治发展模式

法治层次论主张法治由治理方式、制度形态、秩序状态和价值理念等4个高低不同的层次组成,这4个 层次,从宏观上又可分为制度法治和观念法治两大部分。法治建构论强调的是制度法治的建立方式,进化论针对 的是观念法治的衍生过程,二者不仅不相互排斥,反而是紧密相连的依存关系。     

论服装设计大赛与高校服装设计教育的关系

近年来,中国各类服装设计大赛迅猛发展,在为服装行业挖掘设计人才的同时,也为中国高校服装设计教育提供了一个良好的行业氛围。本文通过分析服装大赛与高校服装设计教育之间的关系,总结了各类服装设计大赛的规则设置、评判标准及组织形式,并针对大赛参与各方如何共同进入一个良性的发展空间提出了若干建议。     

A closer look at de-aliasing effects using an efficient foldover technique

Foldover techniques are used to reduce the confounding when some important effects (usually lower order effects) cannot be estimated independently. This article develops an efficient foldover mechanism for symmetric or asymmetric designs, whether regular or nonregular. In this paper, we take the uniformity criteria (UC) as the optimality measures to construct the optimal combined designs (initial design plus its corresponding foldover design) which have better capability of estimating lower order effects. The relationship between any initial design and its combined design is studied. A comparison study between the combined designs via different UC is provided. Equivalence between any combined design and its complementary combined design is investigated, which is a very useful constraint that reduce the search space. Using our results as benchmarks, we can implement a powerful algorithm for constructing optimal combined designs. Our work covers as well as gives results better than recent works of about 20 articles in the last few years as special cases. So this article is a good reference for constructing effective designs.     

群体性事件中的民众心态分析

群体性事件中的骨干力量、普通参与者和旁观者在群体性事件中的策略选择和心态往往会存在一定的差异。将小事闹大来实现维权的目的、借机敛财和对社会进行仇视是群体性事件骨干力量抱持的三种基本心态。普通参与者参与群体性事件的目的并不像骨干力量那样明确,从众和搭便车心理等往往是他们的心态。作为旁观者而存在的某些境外媒体抱持一种唯恐中国不乱、别有用心的心态。极少数不具有利害关系的普通民众以及没有参与群体性事件的一般利害关系人也会表现出一种兴灾乐祸的心态。既然中国当下群体性事件参与者的心态是多元化的,政府在群体性事件的解决过程应当充分考虑参与者的具体心态,建立一套以分类管理为核心的规则治理的应对策略。     

基于灰粗集属性知识简约算法的海运规则发现

海运市场运营规则能够帮助海运企业找到盈利增长点,针对海运市场营运规则难于被发现的问题,将灰色系统理论和粗糙集理论进行融合,针对知识约简中分辨函数范式转化过程中的逻辑推演难题,提出了一种基于灰色粗集融合属性的改进约简算法,选取2007年、2010年、2013年、2015年典型年份作为样本年份,应用灰色系统、粗糙集和基于灰粗集知识约简算法分别进行海运市场盈运规则发现实证分析,通过比较证明了该算法的时效性,同时发掘出了当前海运市场的船型、货品、航线、运价、运力间的营运管理规则。